How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Outcome

ChanceChance

Below 3.8%

$66K vol

3%

Below 3.9%

$59K vol

4%

Below 4.8%

$58K vol

71%

2

Below 3.5%

$44K vol

2%

Below 1.0%

$42K vol

2%

Below 4.6%

$37K vol

27%

1

Below 4.5%

$33K vol

13%

1

Below 4.4%

$28K vol

11%

0

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).