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TwapTrade

How it works

A prediction market lets you trade on whether something will happen. Prices move as people buy and sell, so they double as live odds.

The short version

  1. 1

    Pick a market

    Every market is a question with a deadline, like “Will the Fed cut rates in December?”. Each side trades between 1¢ and 99¢.

  2. 2

    Buy the side you believe

    If Yes costs 34¢, the market thinks there’s about a 34% chance. Buy Yes if you think it’s higher, No if you think it’s lower.

  3. 3

    Get $1 per share if you’re right

    When the market settles, every winning share pays $1 and losing shares pay nothing. You can also sell early at the current price.

A worked example

You buy 100 Yes shares at 34¢, which costs $34. If it happens, you get $100 back, a $66 profit. If it doesn’t, you lose the $34. If the price rises to 60¢ before then, you can sell for $60 and take the $26 gain without waiting.

Questions

Browse markets