How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Outcome

ChanceChance

Below 4.45%

$57K vol

38%

11

Below 4.35%

$53K vol

16%

Below 4.20%

$43K vol

19%

3

Below 4.50%

$38K vol

53%

5

Below 4.40%

$37K vol

34%

1

Below 4.25%

$33K vol

18%

1

Below 4.30%

$27K vol

18%

Below 4.10%

$25K vol

11%

Order book

PriceSharesTotal

Recent trades

Live

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).