How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?

Outcome

ChanceChance

Below 4.47%

$548 vol

40%

7

Below 4.53%

$477 vol

47%

4

Below 4.59%

$444 vol

64%

3

Below 4.50%

$419 vol

39%

13

Below 4.56%

$365 vol

57%

3

Below 4.44%

$170 vol

24%

10

Below 4.37%

$124 vol

32%

9

Below 4.33%

$98 vol

12%

6

Order book

PriceSharesTotal

Recent trades

Live

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).