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Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
7
7
%
77%
Yes
No
No change
2
3
%
23%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
<1%
Yes
No
$17M vol
+2 more
31d left
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
9
8
%
98%
Yes
No
2 (50 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
1 (25 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
$56M vol
+10 more
131
53d left
Fed Decision in January?
No change
7
8
%
78%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
1
9
%
19%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
3
%
3%
Yes
No
$1.3M vol
+2 more
Ends Jan 28, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike
7
6
%
76%
Yes
No
Hike–Pause–Pause
2
1
%
21%
Yes
No
Other
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$638K vol
31d left
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
2 (50 bps)
7
7
%
77%
Yes
No
1 (25 bps)
2
4
%
24%
Yes
No
3 (75 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
$1.5M vol
+2 more
53d left
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
7
5
%
75%
chance
Yes
7
4
.
5
¢
74.5¢
No
2
5
.
5
¢
25.5¢
$1.6M vol
1
points down today
31d left
Fed Decision in April?
No change
6
5
%
65%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
9
%
9%
Yes
No
$53K vol
+2 more
Ends Apr 28, 2027
Fed rate cut by...?
January 2027 Meeting
7
%
7%
Yes
No
March 2027 Meeting
1
3
%
13%
Yes
No
July 2027 Meeting
2
1
%
21%
Yes
No
$3.9M vol
+3 more
31
Ends Jan 29, 2028
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause
7
1
%
71%
Yes
No
Pause-Pause-Hike
1
4
%
14%
Yes
No
Pause-Pause-Pause
9
%
9%
Yes
No
$176K vol
+2 more
Ends Jan 27, 2027
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
0
7
3
%
73%
Yes
No
1
1
1
%
11%
Yes
No
2
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
$50K vol
+2 more
31d left
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%
7
6
%
76%
Yes
No
4.0%
2
2
%
22%
Yes
No
≥ 4.5%
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$7.2M vol
+12 more
5
53d left
Fed Decision in March?
No change
5
3
%
53%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
3
6
%
36%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
6
%
6%
Yes
No
$128K vol
+2 more
Ends Mar 18, 2027
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↓ 2.75%
2
%
2%
Yes
No
↓ 3.0%
2
%
2%
Yes
No
↑ 4.25%
7
6
%
76%
Yes
No
$1.9M vol
+17 more
14
53d left
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
0
5
6
%
56%
Yes
No
1
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
3
1
2
%
12%
Yes
No
$27K vol
+2 more
Ends Jan 28, 2027
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
1
4
%
14%
chance
Yes
1
3
.
5
¢
13.5¢
No
8
6
.
5
¢
86.5¢
$4.7K vol
7
points up today
53d left
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
2
%
2%
chance
Yes
2
¢
2¢
No
9
8
¢
98¢
$262K vol
53d left
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
December 31
3
%
3%
Yes
No
November 30
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$35K vol
53d left
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
4.25%
3
8
%
38%
Yes
No
4.5%
2
8
%
28%
Yes
No
3.5%
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
$28K vol
+12 more
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
December 31
1
3
%
13%
Yes
No
November 30
3
%
3%
Yes
No
$45K vol
1
53d left
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
2
%
2%
chance
Yes
1
.
6
¢
1.6¢
No
9
8
.
4
¢
98.4¢
$32K vol
53d left
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 2026
2
%
2%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
6
%
6%
Yes
No
$54K vol
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
December 31
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$40K vol
53d left
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
1
%
1%
chance
Yes
1
.
4
¢
1.4¢
No
9
8
.
6
¢
98.6¢
$6.3K vol
1
53d left
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
December 31, 2026
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$320K vol
34
53d left
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