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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
December 31
5
6
%
56%
Yes
No
November 15
9
0
%
90%
Yes
No
November 30
7
5
%
75%
Yes
No
$50M vol
+4 more
539
53d left
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
3
5
%
35%
Yes
No
November 30
2
0
%
20%
Yes
No
November 15
5
%
5%
Yes
No
$50M vol
+1 more
938
53d left
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1
2
%
12%
chance
Yes
1
2
¢
12¢
No
8
8
¢
88¢
$79M vol
2
points up today
1
53d left
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
November 8
1
7
%
17%
Yes
No
November 22
5
1
%
51%
Yes
No
December 31
8
0
%
80%
Yes
No
$307K vol
+2 more
5
53d left
Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
9
%
9%
Yes
No
November 30
2
%
2%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
2
3
%
23%
Yes
No
$30M vol
1.1k
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
4
3
%
43%
chance
Yes
4
2
.
5
¢
42.5¢
No
5
7
.
5
¢
57.5¢
$2.1M vol
7
points up today
53d left
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026
3
9
%
39%
Yes
No
November 30, 2026
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
$1.6M vol
53d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
7
%
7%
chance
Yes
6
.
5
¢
6.5¢
No
9
3
.
5
¢
93.5¢
$17M vol
2
points down today
53d left
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
7
%
7%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
1
8
%
18%
Yes
No
$5.8M vol
43
53d left
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
9
3
%
93%
Yes
No
Alireza Arafi
3
%
3%
Yes
No
No Head of State
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$41M vol
+27 more
156
53d left
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
November 30
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$21M vol
163
53d left
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31
3
1
%
31%
Yes
No
November 30
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
$929K vol
17
53d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3
%
3%
chance
Yes
2
.
8
¢
2.8¢
No
9
7
.
3
¢
97.3¢
$30M vol
6
53d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
2
%
2%
chance
Yes
2
.
4
¢
2.4¢
No
9
7
.
6
¢
97.6¢
$1.6M vol
0
points down today
22d left
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31
3
5
%
35%
Yes
No
November 30
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
$3.9M vol
18
53d left
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 6
>99%
Yes
No
$3.9M vol
206
53d left
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
9
%
9%
Yes
No
November 30
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$18M vol
279
53d left
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction Funding
8
%
8%
Yes
No
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
$1.6M vol
+3 more
19
53d left
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
3
0
%
30%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
9
%
9%
Yes
No
$8.7M vol
+1 more
222
53d left
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff
3
8
%
38%
Yes
No
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
3
3
%
33%
Yes
No
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2
7
%
27%
Yes
No
$2.1M vol
+21 more
53d left
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31
2
7
%
27%
Yes
No
November 30
1
8
%
18%
Yes
No
$11M vol
1.0k
53d left
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
5
%
5%
Yes
No
$77M vol
525
53d left
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$581K vol
1
53d left
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
November 30, 2026
1
8
%
18%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
2
2
%
22%
Yes
No
January 31, 2027
3
4
%
34%
Yes
No
$73K vol
1
Ends Feb 1, 2027
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