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Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
9
%
9%
Yes
No
November 30
2
%
2%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
2
3
%
23%
Yes
No
$30M vol
1.1k
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
9
2
%
92%
Yes
No
Alireza Arafi
3
%
3%
Yes
No
No Head of State
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$41M vol
+27 more
156
53d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3
%
3%
chance
Yes
2
.
8
¢
2.8¢
No
9
7
.
3
¢
97.3¢
$30M vol
6
53d left
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
5
%
5%
Yes
No
$77M vol
525
53d left
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
1
1
%
11%
Yes
No
$7.6M vol
415
53d left
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$22M vol
438
53d left
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
1
%
1%
chance
Yes
1
.
3
¢
1.3¢
No
9
8
.
7
¢
98.7¢
$12M vol
58
53d left
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
1
3
%
13%
chance
Yes
1
3
¢
13¢
No
8
7
¢
87¢
$48K vol
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2026
7
%
7%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
3
4
%
34%
Yes
No
$2.4M vol
25
53d left
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?
December 31
1
4
%
14%
Yes
No
$66K vol
1
53d left
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
December 31
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$94K vol
2
53d left
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
November 30
3
%
3%
Yes
No
$331K vol
22d left
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
2
%
2%
chance
Yes
2
.
3
¢
2.3¢
No
9
7
.
7
¢
97.7¢
$684K vol
25
53d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
2
3
%
23%
chance
Yes
2
2
.
5
¢
22.5¢
No
7
7
.
5
¢
77.5¢
$122K vol
2
points up today
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 31
6
%
6%
Yes
No
$768K vol
3
53d left
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$215K vol
53d left
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
December 31
2
5
%
25%
Yes
No
$580K vol
4
53d left
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
7
%
7%
Yes
No
$207K vol
2
53d left
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$83K vol
53d left
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$103K vol
2
53d left
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
<1%
Yes
No
$60K vol
1
53d left
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
December 31
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$120K vol
2
53d left
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$202K vol
1
53d left
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
1
%
1%
chance
Yes
1
.
3
¢
1.3¢
No
9
8
.
8
¢
98.8¢
$88K vol
27
53d left
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