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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
December 31
5
6
%
56%
Yes
No
November 15
9
1
%
91%
Yes
No
November 30
7
5
%
75%
Yes
No
$50M vol
+4 more
539
53d left
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
6
4
%
64%
Yes
No
Benjamin Netanyahu
2
1
%
21%
Yes
No
Avigdor Lieberman
7
%
7%
Yes
No
$90M vol
+19 more
1.8k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1
3
%
13%
chance
Yes
1
2
.
5
¢
12.5¢
No
8
7
.
5
¢
87.5¢
$79M vol
2
points up today
1
53d left
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31
3
1
%
31%
Yes
No
November 30
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
$929K vol
17
53d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3
%
3%
chance
Yes
2
.
8
¢
2.8¢
No
9
7
.
3
¢
97.3¢
$30M vol
6
53d left
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
November 6
>99%
Yes
No
$3.9M vol
206
53d left
Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?
1
3
%
13%
chance
Yes
1
3
¢
13¢
No
8
7
¢
87¢
$38K vol
1
points down today
6
53d left
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
3
0
%
30%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
9
%
9%
Yes
No
$8.7M vol
+1 more
222
53d left
Next Israeli government # of seats?
<58
5
7
%
57%
Yes
No
61-63
1
7
%
17%
Yes
No
70-72
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$35K vol
+4 more
1
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
Benjamin Netanyahu
5
9
%
59%
Yes
No
No second mandate
4
0
%
40%
Yes
No
Yair Golan
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$24K vol
+18 more
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 31
5
%
5%
Yes
No
$1.2M vol
53d left
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Ra'am
2
0
%
20%
Yes
No
Shas
3
0
%
30%
Yes
No
Likud
2
3
%
23%
Yes
No
$375K vol
+12 more
3
Ends Jun 30, 2027
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 2026
5
%
5%
Yes
No
$3.9M vol
371
53d left
Next Israeli government formed by...?
November 30, 2026
1
2
%
12%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
4
1
%
41%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
8
1
%
81%
Yes
No
$227K vol
+1 more
24
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
4
6
%
46%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
6
9
%
69%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
6
6
%
66%
Yes
No
$125M vol
29
53d left
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
November 8
9
8
%
98%
Yes
No
November 9
6
7
%
67%
Yes
No
November 7
1
4
%
14%
Yes
No
$26K vol
+22 more
22d left
How many Israeli elections before government formed?
1
7
2
%
72%
Yes
No
2
2
2
%
22%
Yes
No
3
6
%
6%
Yes
No
$295K vol
+2 more
9
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
November 30, 2026
1
8
%
18%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
2
2
%
22%
Yes
No
January 31, 2027
3
4
%
34%
Yes
No
$73K vol
1
Ends Feb 1, 2027
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
2
9
%
29%
chance
Yes
2
8
.
5
¢
28.5¢
No
7
1
.
5
¢
71.5¢
$157K vol
5
points down today
3
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
1
1
%
11%
Yes
No
$7.6M vol
415
53d left
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 31
9
%
9%
Yes
No
$2.9M vol
357
53d left
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
$22M vol
438
53d left
Bank of Israel Decision in January?
No Change
6
9
%
69%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
8
%
8%
Yes
No
$8.6K vol
+2 more
57d left
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
1
3
%
13%
chance
Yes
1
3
¢
13¢
No
8
7
¢
87¢
$48K vol
Ends Jul 1, 2027
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