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Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
9
%
9%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
6
%
6%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$32M vol
1
Ends Jul 1, 2027
US imports Russian diesel by...?
November 30
1
6
%
16%
Yes
No
December 31
2
4
%
24%
Yes
No
January 31
2
4
%
24%
Yes
No
$1.2M vol
+2 more
62
Ends Apr 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
8
8
%
88%
Yes
No
No meeting by December 31
1
2
%
12%
Yes
No
United States
<1%
Yes
No
$2.4M vol
+12 more
53d left
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
UAE
9
7
%
97%
Yes
No
No Talks by December 31, 2027
3
%
3%
Yes
No
Turkey
<1%
Yes
No
$320K vol
+26 more
9
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
1
6
%
16%
Yes
No
March 31, 2027
3
6
%
36%
Yes
No
January 31, 2027
2
5
%
25%
Yes
No
$11M vol
+11 more
312
Ends Jul 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
1
2
%
12%
Yes
No
November 30
4
%
4%
Yes
No
November 15
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$13M vol
558
55d left
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
November 30
9
7
%
97%
Yes
No
December 31
9
8
%
98%
Yes
No
November 15
9
7
%
97%
Yes
No
$2.4M vol
216
53d left
Plague declared public health emergency by...?
December 31
2
%
2%
Yes
No
November 30
<1%
Yes
No
$33K vol
1
53d left
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
December 31
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$629K vol
134
53d left
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
8
8
%
88%
chance
Yes
8
7
.
5
¢
87.5¢
No
1
2
.
5
¢
12.5¢
$85K vol
1
points up today
7
53d left
Will Russia invade another country by...?
December 31, 2026
2
%
2%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
1
8
%
18%
Yes
No
$757K vol
14
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 31
8
9
%
89%
Yes
No
November 30
8
7
%
87%
Yes
No
$493K vol
2
53d left
Russia coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2026
2
%
2%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
1
6
%
16%
Yes
No
$159K vol
7
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Bank of Russia Decision in February?
No Change
4
0
%
40%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
3
8
%
38%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
2
4
%
24%
Yes
No
$4.9K vol
+2 more
Ends Feb 12, 2027
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2026
5
%
5%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
1
4
%
14%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
3
6
%
36%
Yes
No
$905K vol
53d left
Russia military action against EU country by...?
December 31, 2026
3
%
3%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
2
1
%
21%
Yes
No
$332K vol
5
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
November 6
9
7
%
97%
Yes
No
November 8
1
5
%
15%
Yes
No
November 10
8
8
%
88%
Yes
No
$10K vol
+21 more
22d left
NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?
6
%
6%
chance
Yes
6
¢
6¢
No
9
4
¢
94¢
$6.7K vol
1
points down today
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
7
%
7%
Yes
No
December 31
1
%
1%
Yes
No
$4.8M vol
465
Ends Jul 1, 2027
Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
November 15
1
0
%
10%
Yes
No
November 30
3
1
%
31%
Yes
No
December 31
6
2
%
62%
Yes
No
$1.3K vol
53d left
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
2
%
2%
chance
Yes
1
.
9
¢
1.9¢
No
9
8
.
2
¢
98.2¢
$166K vol
2
points down today
53d left
Bank of Russia decision in December?
No change
8
0
%
80%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
1
6
%
16%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
4
%
4%
Yes
No
$41K vol
+2 more
40d left
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
3
%
3%
chance
Yes
3
.
3
¢
3.3¢
No
9
6
.
7
¢
96.7¢
$76K vol
1
points up today
53d left
Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by…?
November 30
8
3
%
83%
Yes
No
December 31
8
6
%
86%
Yes
No
November 15
6
2
%
62%
Yes
No
$1.7K vol
53d left
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